![]() ![]() This was particularly true in 2016, when pretty much everyone predicted a Hillary Clinton victory. It should be noted that US pollsters have had a mixed record in forecasting elections. This is because it reflects public opinion before the full-scale campaign has even begun. Most forecasting models use polling data, but since we are 15 months away from the presidential election, current polling should be treated with caution. There is a lively community of political scientists using a variety of different methods to forecast elections, with many focusing on the US. If the election took place tomorrow, he would have a real chance of regaining the presidency. If he does win the Republican nomination the question is: can he win the presidential election in November next year? Real Clear Politics also reported a poll showing that he is running neck-and-neck with Joe Biden, each having 44% in voting intentions. ![]() ![]() His lead over the other Republican hopefuls such as former vice president Mike Pence is even larger. According to a poll reported by the website Real Clear Politics on August 19, he has a 41% lead over his main rival Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, in the Republican nomination race. Despite the avalanche of legal indictments, Donald Trump remains favourite to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 US presidential election. ![]()
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